SHARM EL SHEIKH, Egypt — At last year’s global climate talks in Glasgow, world leaders, scientists and chief executives rallied around a call to “keep 1.5 alive.”

The mantra refers to an aspirational goal that all governments endorse in the 2015 Paris climate agreement: To stop global average temperatures rising by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7° Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. Scientists say that scientists cannot exceed this threshold. the Climate catastrophes are more likely to occur.

1.5 is still hanging on for dear Life.

At the United Nations This Red Sea town hosts a climate summit. Countries are arguing over whether or not they should aim for the same goals. the 1.5-degree target.

The United States and the Both European Union and European Union insist that any final agreement must be reached at the Summit, also known as COP27 should be highlighted the It is important to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.

However, a few countries, including China have so far refused to reaffirm their commitment. the According to negotiators of several industrialized countries, the 1.5-degree goal is achievable. Failing to do so would be a major departure from last year’s climate pact and, to some, a tacit admission of defeat.

“When I arrived here, I got a really strong sense of backsliding,” Mary Robinson the A former president of Ireland leads a group that includes prominent ex-leaders called the Elders. Together with leaders of over 200 the world’s largest businesses and civil society groups, Ms. Robinson signed a letter urging governments at the 1.5 degree limit to be maintained in climate talks

This temperature goal is “a limit of safe living,” Ms. Robinson stated, “Additionally, “Every increase of a tiny fraction of a degree is harmful, and we have to claw to prevent going above 1.5.”

For certain countries, the The dispute extends beyond the digits. Leaders from low-lying islands nations claim that vast swathes of their territory could be washed away if the global average temperature were to exceed 1.5 degrees. “This is indeed a matter of survival for all vulnerable countries,” Kwaku Afriyie, Ghana’s environment minister, said.

A gathering of the world’s 20 largest economies that is taking place in Bali, Indonesia, this week, leaders said they were resolved “to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” Pressure on the Diplomats at the Climate talks in Egypt

Some negotiators worry that, despite what has been agreed to on paper this year, global carbon dioxide emissions will rise to a new record high. the The 1.5 degree goal may soon be impossible to reach. The average temperature of the planet has risen to 1.1 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times. the Current policies of national governments the According to a U.N. report, the world is heating up at 2.1 to 2.9 degrees Celsius this century.

“The goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees is on life support,” Philip Davis, Prime Minister of the Bahamas spoke in a speech to world leader at the Egyptian conference “This is a hard truth for many to admit, because even the best-case scenarios will mean almost unimaginable upheaval and tragedy.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February set off a global energy scramble that has complicated efforts to reduce the Use of fossil fuels. Europe and other European countries switched to coal as a fuel and invested in new terminals and natural gas pipelines that could be used for many years. Despite Western sanctions, Russian fuel exports continued, just heading to other trading partners. In the United States: Republicans call for increased oil and gas exploration and production. Many gas deals were made by fossil fuel companies with other countries. at COP27.

Al Gore believes that this would make it nearly impossible to limit global temperature rises to 1.5 degrees. the In a speech, a former U.S. vice-president said that the Opening Day of the Egyptian summit.

“The world’s leading scientists and energy experts have told us that any new fossil fuel development is incompatible with 1.5 degrees as the limit to the temperature increase,” He said.

Some ambiguity exists in the Paris Agreement about what it means. the world’s exact climate goals should be. The pact said All nations should agree to keep global warming under control “well below” 2 degrees Celsius “pursuing efforts” Limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius

Half a degree doesn’t sound like much, but every fraction of a degree of additional warming could mean tens of millions more people worldwide exposed to life-threatening heat waves, water shortages and coastal flooding, scientists have found. A A 1.5-degree globe might still have Arctic sea ice and coral reefs, while a 2 degree world most likely wouldn’t.

The consequences are “massively different in terms of food security and the ability to grow crops in certain parts of the world, and in terms of the number of people that are exposed to extreme floodplain risk and extreme heat risk,” Raj Shah the President of the Rockefeller Foundation

Yet, at At this point, keeping global warming under 1.5 degrees would require bold steps that would be expensive, political hard and disruptive. This would require leaders from almost all countries to come together and take action. They would have to cut their combined fossil fuel emissions by roughly half by 2030 and stop adding carbon dioxide. the Scientists expect to see the entire atmosphere disappear by 2050. have calculated. This would require a total overhaul of all electric and transportation systems. at Unprecedented pace With every year of inaction comes an unprecedented pace. the task gets harder.

To keep the temperature at 2 degrees Celsius, countries would need to reduce their emissions by half for a decade more.

China, the world’s largest emitter, has several concerns about the 1.5 goal,” said Li Shuo (a policy advisor for Greenpeace, Beijing). It would pressure the government. the He stated that the Chinese government would adopt a stronger domestic target to cut greenhouse gases. This is something they want to avoid. If it is not, the United States to Withdraw from the China will continue to lead the global fight against climate change as it did under President Donald J. Trump. the Only load.

“There is this skepticism about the United States’ ability to fulfill its promise,” Mr. Li spoke. “The U.S. could just walk away, citing congressional resistance, and on the other side, the Chinese will be held more accountable. ”

The Chinese delegation at COP27 has not responded to a request to comment.

India, the world’s third-largest emitter, has in the Past were wary about focusing too heavily on the past the 1.5-degree target. Indian officials must meet this target. have saidRicher countries will need to cut their emissions more quickly than they do now and provide more financial aid for poor nations. the To help them transition to clean energy, they will need to spend billions. So far, wealthy countries have not been able to do this.

The Indian delegation at COP27 declined to comment.

Some world leaders appear increasingly pessimistic. the 1.5 climate goal will be met even if nations do endorse the target. Words on paper, after all, don’t cut emissions.

Mia Mottley, Barbados’ Prime Minster, leads a campaign to reform the World Bank the International Monetary Fund, in order to unlock additional money to help developing countries pivot away from fossil fuels. She said that it wasn’t enough to chant “1.5 to Stay Alive” It was in the hopes of bringing about change.

“I take no pride in being associated with having to repeat it over and over and over,” She said.

Instead, she stated that after a year filled with record floods, fires, droughts, and storms, the nations must act. the hard work to reduce carbon dioxide, methane, and other gases that trap heat in the atmosphere.

For the However, for those who are determined optimists, there is still hope.

Mr. Biden pushed through this year the Inflation Reduction Act, America’s first major climate legislation, which will pour $370 billion into low-carbon technologies like wind turbines, solar panels, nuclear power plants, hydrogen fuels, electric vehicles and electric heat pumps. It is expected to reduce inflation. the By 2030, the country will have reduced its emissions by 40% compared to 2005 levels.

In a speech at the Climate summit, Mr. Biden urged other countries to follow his lead to come up with plans for reducing their planet’s warming emissions.

“If we’re going to win this fight, every major emitter nation needs align with the 1.5 degrees,” Mr. Biden said. “We can no longer plead ignorance to the consequences of our actions or continue to repeat our mistakes.”

One recent development that has encouraged 1.5-believers was the election of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a committed environmentalist, as the Brazil’s president. He is scheduled to speak at the On Wednesday, climate summit has committed to protecting the Amazon rainforest. Jair Bolsonaro who was responsible for cutting environmental programs and overseeing a sharp rise of deforestation, was replaced by Mr. Lula.

“There is an opportunity to protect the Amazon rainforest, which is critical for protecting our global climate,” said Leila Salazar-Lopez, the Amazon Watch is a non-profit organization. “If the Brazilian election would have gone the other way, then I think we would definitely be beyond a tipping point and we would not have a chance for 1.5.”

International Energy Agency also predicts that the energy crisis incited by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will spur more nations to invest in lower-emissions technologies this decade in order to improve their energy security. The global investment in clean energies is now expected to increase from $1.3 trillion this ye to more than $2 trillion annually by 2030. However, that’s still less than what is required to maintain the temperature at 1.5 degrees.

“The science shows us that we can actually turn things around if we stop fossil fuel expansion and carbon emissions,” Osprey Orielle Lake, the Executive director the Women’s Earth and Climate Action Network, “It’s like an 11th-hour save, but we can’t give up.”