Former President Donald J. Trump He is pulling away from his competitors for the Republican Presidential nomination and leading Gov. Ron DeSantis According to the New York Times, Florida won the Republican primaries by an overwhelming 37 points among likely primary voters. Times/Siena The 2024 college campaign poll.

Mr. Trump Groups with a high percentage of women are more likely to be able to afford the benefits. and You can find out more about the region by clicking here. and The survey showed that Republican voters were not concerned about the legal risks he was facing. The survey found that he led men by a wide margin and women, younger and older voters, moderates and Conservatives are those who have gone to college and those who didn’t, and Cities and their suburbs and Rural areas.

Some of Mr. DeSantis’s central campaign arguments — that he is more electable than Mr. Trump, and that he would govern more effectively — have so far failed to break through. Republicans have been motivated to vote for Mr. DeSantis’s rise, such as fighting “radical woke ideology,” Favored the former President

Overall, Mr. Trump Mr. DeSantis The poll showed 54 to 17 percent. In the poll, no other candidate received more than 3 percent of support.

Other ominous indicators for Mr. DeSantis. He performed his weakest among some of the Republican Party’s biggest and most influential constituencies. Only 9 percent of voters over 65 supported him. and Thirteen percent have no college education. Republicans who identified themselves as “very conservative” favored Mr. Trump The margin was 50 percent, or 65 percent versus 15 percent.

No other serious contenders have emerged. Trump A new challenger to Mr. DeSantis. Former Vice-President Mike Pence and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and Tim Scott from South Carolina and Senator Tim Scott each received 3 per cent support. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie received 3 percent of the vote. and Vivek Ramaswamy is an entrepreneur who received just 2 per cent of the respondents’ support.

Even if they all disappeared and Mr. DeSantis Got a hypothetical race one-on-1 against Mr. TrumpThis poll revealed that, even though he was favored by more than two-to-1, his chances of winning were still slim, with 62 percent against 31 percent. This is an important reminder, despite all of the angst among those who are anti-Trump Forces that the Party would divide itself If Mr. Trump The government is on track to thrash even an opposition that has a single voice.

It is only six months until the 2024 primaries. and before a single debate. In a time of American politics characterized by volatility, Mr. Trump’s legal troubles — his trials threaten to overlap with primary season — pose an especially unpredictable wild card.

But for now, I’m sorry, Mr. Trump The mood is matched by the Republican voters, who, according to 89 percent, see America heading in the wrong directions. and Republicans’ desire to take the fight to the Democrats.

“He might say mean things and make all the men cry because all the men are wearing your wife’s underpants and you can’t be a man anymore,” David Green said that Mr. Trump. “You got to be a little sissy and cry about everything. But at the end of the day, you want results. Donald Trump’s my guy. He’s proved it on a national level.”

The Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis Republicans continue to give Republicans a high rating of approval, with 76 percent. and 66 percent. The Mr. DeSantis After a constant drumbeat of media coverage that questioned his ability to reach voters, he is still very well liked. and The attack advertisements from the a Trump Super PACs demonstrate a degree of resilience. He has been praised by his team for the positive impression he’s made with G.O.P. The voters provide a good foundation for building.

But the intensity of the former president’s support is a key difference as 43 percent of Republicans have a “very favorable” The opinion of Mr. Trump — a cohort that he carries by an overwhelming 92 percent to 7 percent margin in a one-on-one race with Mr. DeSantis.

By contrast, Mr. DeSantis He is in a tangle with Mr. TrumpIn the primary elections, the governor is seen as very favorable by only 25 percent of voters.

Interviews with survey respondents revealed a common theme. It is Mr. DeSantisThey love Mr. Trump.

“DeSantis, I have high hopes. But as long as Trump’s there, Trump’s the man,” Daniel Brown, aged 58 and a retired nuclear technician from Bumpass in Virginia, said:

“If he wasn’t running against Trump, DeSantis would be my very next choice,” Stanton Strohmenger said he is 48 and a maintenance technologist in Washington Township.

Some respondents made the distinction between Mr. DeSantis’s accomplishments in Tallahassee and Mr. Trump’s in the White House.

“Trump has proven his clout,” Mallory Butler of Polk County in Florida, aged 39, was a victim. “And DeSantis has, but in a much smaller arena.”

What is truly anti-Trump A small fraction of Republican voters, about one out of four G.O.P. It is not enough for him to be deposed. Only 19 percent said Mr. Trump’s behavior after his 2020 defeat threatened American democracy. The former president is only viewed by 17 percent as a serious federal criminal, even though he was indicted on mishandling of classified documents. and Jack Smith’s office has filed a separate case of election interference in which he received a “target letter”.

“I think Donald Trump is going to carry a lot of baggage to the election with him,” Hilda Bulla (68), of Davidson County in N.C. said that she supports Mr. DeSantis.

But Mr. Trump’s grip on the Republican Party is so strong, the Times/Siena In a face-to-face contest, a poll revealed that Mr. DeSantis, Mr. Trump Receive 22 percent among voters who believe he has committed serious federal crimes — a greater share than the 17 percent that Mr. DeSantis The total amount of G.O.P. electorate.

Mr. DeSantis Take on “woke” Institutions are a central part of his identity. If given a hypothetical choice, would you choose a candidate who prioritised institutions or one that prioritized “defeating radical woke ideology” Or one that was focusing on “law and order in our streets and at the border,” Only 24 percent indicated that they are more likely to back a candidate who is focused on fighting “woke” issues.

Both Mr. DeSantis It isn’t just those “woke”Voters still prefer Mr. TrumpThe 61 to 36% range is a wide variation.

It is possible to beat Mr. Biden and The core mission of Mr. DeSantis’s appeal to Republicans. He warned Mr. Trump Has saddled the Party with a “culture of losing” In the meantime, Trump You can also find out more about and He has referred to his successful reelection 2022 in Florida’s once-purple state as an example for the G.O.P. He has been governor since 2005 and implemented a set of conservative policies that have reoriented Florida. and He promised to bring that same zeal for policy-making into the White House.

These arguments don’t seem to work. A large majority (58%) of Republicans in the survey said that Mr. TrumpMr. DeSantisWho was the best person to describe by this phrase? “able to beat Joe Biden.” It was again Mr. TrumpWho was perceived as being the most important person by an overwhelming 67 percent to only 22 percent? “get things done.”

Mr. DeSantis Mr. Trump Being seen as “likable” and “moral.” Interesting, Republicans are more likely to say Mr. Trump There’s more “fun” Mr. DeSantis The overall race was almost exactly matched by the (54 to 16%).

“He does not come across with humor,” Sandra Reher (75), a retired Farmingdale teacher, N.J. said about Mr. DeSantis. “He comes across as a — a good Christian man, wonderful family man. But he doesn’t have that fire, if you will, that Trump has.”

Mr. DeSantis Is calling attention to himself “blue-collar” Roots and His decision to join the military is cited as one of many reasons why voters should back him in his race against an alleged billionaire. The poll revealed that Mr. Trump Lapping Mr. DeSantis Among likely Republican Primary Voters earning less than $50k, the percentage ranges from 65 percent up to 9 percent.

As of right now, please Mr. DeSantis’s few demographic refuges — places where he is losing by smaller margins — are more upscale pockets of the electorate. He was behind Mr. Trump The difference was less dramatic, at 37 percent to 25 per cent amongst white voters with a college degree. In the group of people earning over $100,000, Mr. DeSantis He was 23 points behind, which is half of the gap he had to make up amongst the lowest-earning earners.

This fractured terrain appears to have prevented Mr. DeSantis Mr. DeSantis Mr. Trump White voters who have a college education are more likely to vote.

The poll indicates that Mr. DeSantis Break through Mr. Trump On the basis of policy alone.

The head-to-head battle between Mr. Trump I was way ahead of Mr. DeSantis Republicans accept that transgenders are the same gender as their identity. and There are those who oppose corporations and those who support them. “promote woke left ideology,” and Among those who would like to see more military sent to the front lines; those who are against business. and Economic aid to Ukraine and Social Security is not popular amongst those that do not want it; and those that wish to maintain Social Security and Medicare Benefits as They Are and There are many people who would like to see the budget deficit reduced.

Mr. Trump Leading Mr. DeSantis Republicans believe that abortion should be always legal. and Those who think it should be always illegal.

Mr. DeSantis Signed a strict abortion ban of six weeks that Mr. Trump Has been criticized “too harsh.” But Mr. Trump 70% of Republicans said that they supported the measure strongly.

Marcel Paba (22), a Miami-based server, liked the way Mr. DeSantis had done for his state but didn’t think the governor could overcome the enthusiasm for Mr. Trump.

“There are just more die-hard fans of Trump than there are of Ron DeSantis. Even in Florida,” “Mr. Paba” said. “I don’t see people wearing a Ron DeSantis hat anywhere, you know?”

Camille Baker, Alyce McFadden and Ruth Igielnik Contributed Reporting

The New York Times/Siena From July 23 through 27, 2023, a telephone survey of 932 potential Republican primary voters was conducted with live operators. The sampling error margin is 3.96 percent plus or minus. Cross-tabs and Here you can find out more about the methodology.